Stacy Ray Stewart "NOAA and Hurricane Season"

Stacy Ray Stewart is a Senior Hurricane Specialist with NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC).  Mr. Stewart has a M.S. in Meteorology from the University of Oklahoma and has held his current position since 2000.  Prior to this he was Lead Forecaster in the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Hurricane Center and also a Doppler Radar Instructor with the National Weather Service.  Mr. Stewart has served as a Meterological Technician in the U.S. Navy and has held many other responsibilities under U.S. Navy Reserve Duty.

The topic of today's discussion is this year's Hurricane Season.  On Average, there is a major hurricane every 10 years.  The last major hurricane to hit South Florida was Hurricane Andrew and before that was Betsy in 1965.  Last year we had an above average number of storms though they did not produce much damage, what those in the business call a season of quantity not quality.  In 2010, there were a total of 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.  This is the 3rd highest number of storms and 2nd highest number of named storms (2nd only to 2005.)

The NOAA predicts in 2011 there is a 65% chance to have an above average active hurricane season.  Mr. Stewart thinks it is more realistically a 100% chance that it will be above average with 12-18 hurricanes and 6-10 major hurricanes.  His reasoning is that there are above average ocean temperatures and temperature abnormalities, we have not seen conditions like our current conditions since 2005. 

The National Hurricane Center issued 404 Forecasts last year under its 7.3 million operating budget.  There are approximately 60 million people living in potential hurricane threat areas, this amounts to $.0003 for every forecast.

Visit www.hurricanes.gov or www.nhc.noaa.gov for club contact information.